Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:15 PM

Obama Leads Romney in Key Swing States

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/03/09/obama_leads_romney_in_key_swing_states.html

Obama Leads Romney in Key Swing States

A new Rasmussen survey shows President Obama now holds a modest lead over Mitt Romney in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, 46% to 42%.

In late February they were tied.

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8 replies	Author	Time	Post
Obama Leads Romney in Key Swing States (Original post)	babylonsister	Mar 2012	OP
The Core Four	liberal N proud	Mar 2012	#1
Not to rain on the parade here, but Rasmussen also reports this:	SlimJimmy	Mar 2012	#2
their tracking poll is all over the place these days.	Mr.Turnip	Mar 2012	#3
Agreed. My point was more about not trying to push one poll while ignoring others. It tends to get	SlimJimmy	Mar 2012	#5
Rasmussen's poll numbers are generally biased towards Republicans.	Alexander	Mar 2012	#6
Sorry, but these people need to stop doing combined polling...	Drunken Irishman	Mar 2012	#4
That's great!	Proud Liberal Dem	Mar 2012	#7
K&R	Tarheel_Dem	Mar 2012	#8

Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:18 PM

liberal N proud (43,708 posts)

1. The Core Four

From listening to conservatives here (Ohio), it sounds like they have already given up.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:25 PM

SlimJimmy (1,730 posts)

2. Not to rain on the parade here, but Rasmussen also reports this:

In a hypothetical 2012 matchup, Mitt Romney now leads President Obama 47% to 45%. If Rick Santorum is the Republican nominee, the president leads 47% to 44%. Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). See tracking history for Obama vs. all four Republican candidates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

I keep saying that this is not going to be a slam dunk for the President. Get out the vote, don't let up.

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Response to SlimJimmy (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:28 PM

Mr.Turnip (624 posts)

3. their tracking poll is all over the place these days.

has wild swings daily sometimes.

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Response to Mr.Turnip (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:56 PM

SlimJimmy (1,730 posts)

5. Agreed. My point was more about not trying to push one poll while ignoring others. It tends to get

us in trouble when we do that. I also agree with the other poster that combined polls are basically worthless.

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Response to SlimJimmy (Reply #5)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 07:32 AM

Alexander (15,270 posts)

6. Rasmussen's poll numbers are generally biased towards Republicans.

There were quite a few analyses from 2008 and 2010 showing that Rasmussen polls consistently overestimated support for Republicans.

I see your point, but it's worth mentioning that some pollsters are legitimately more accurate than others. PPP has been pretty spot-on as far as 2012 is concerned.

I also agree that combined polls don't mean much, although it's better than nothing.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Fri Mar 9, 2012, 02:29 PM

Drunken Irishman (24,587 posts)

4. Sorry, but these people need to stop doing combined polling...

It means a lick to me. Gallup does the same thing. Just give me the individual state numbers and don't clump them together. Who cares if he leads in the combined states? Like I said back when he was tied (and trailing in the Gallup), he doesn't need to win every swing state to win the election.

I'll say this, though, the fact he's leading in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia, since he only needs to win, really, just one of those states, is good news. Still, I'd like state numbers.

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 11:11 AM

Proud Liberal Dem (11,756 posts)

7. That's great!

Last edited Sat Mar 10, 2012, 11:17 AM USA/ET - Edit history (3)

Now, let's not get cocky!!!

Let's also not forget the downticket races either. The GOP Tea Party sure ain't going to, particularly since a lot of the *smart* ones have pretty much given up on the prospect of winning the WH this year with their "calvacade of clowns"!

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Response to babylonsister (Original post)

Sat Mar 10, 2012, 03:40 PM

Tarheel_Dem (16,647 posts)

8. K&R

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