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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:47 AM

Purple Strategies poll of Arizona: Romney leads by only three points

Arizona (Romney +3): For the first time, we have included
Arizona as a stand-alone state, and find Mitt Romney leading
48% to 45%. Romney is also winning independents in the state
(47% to 42%), while President Obama is performing very well
among Hispanics (58% to 28%). This represents an improvement
on his result among Hispanics in Arizona in 2008, where he
defeated John McCain by 15 points among that key group.

http://www.purplestrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/PurplePoll-9.21.12.pdf

If a month from now Obama is leading the way he is in the presidential race, I would support throwing some $$ and time into Arizona. If Obama can win the latino vote strongly he might be able to take the state. Chances are he won't but it might be worth a try--but we need to see where we are on October 21st.

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Reply Purple Strategies poll of Arizona: Romney leads by only three points (Original post)
WI_DEM Sep 2012 OP
thelordofhell Sep 2012 #1
Robbins Sep 2012 #2
WI_DEM Sep 2012 #4
phantom power Sep 2012 #3
TroyD Sep 2012 #6
smorkingapple Sep 2012 #5
WI_DEM Sep 2012 #7
smorkingapple Sep 2012 #9
woolldog Sep 2012 #8

Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:51 AM

1. Hispanic and Mormons cancel each other out.......Elderly is split

So it's basically old white guys vs. young people and women

Arizona
Is
Winnable

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:51 AM

2. Purple Strategies

It's a conservative leaning poll and Romney Is only leading by 3? This shows why a republican poll
has the Democratic nominee for senate up by 4.

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Response to Robbins (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:53 AM

4. this is why I decided to post the purple strategy polls

while they may have a bias, their polling today in this state and others, doesn't seem to reflect it much.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:53 AM

3. I think AZ is a take-able state for Dems...

it would take a concerted effort, and maybe the effort is more effectively spent elsewhere, but if the Dems ever decided they were going to go for it, I think it could be done.

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Response to phantom power (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:02 PM

6. Most important thing in ARIZONA is to help Carmona

The Senate race should come before the Presidential race. Obama doesn't need Arizona, Romney does.

But a chance at an extra Senate seat (and Carmona was leading in a poll posted here yesterday) would be great.

Bill Clinton won ARIZONA in 1996, the only Democrat to do so in the past half-century.

I would recommend Bill taking a trip to help out Carmona.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 11:58 AM

5. Same with NC, don't get hopes up. AZ and NC are our PA.

State has tons of elderly folks and retirees. They will make a last stand for Republicans.

Let's not get hopes up that we can turn these states blue this time. We already got them boxed in with NV, NM and CA going blue so it'll turn eventually.

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Response to smorkingapple (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:02 PM

7. Not NC--because NC went to Obama in 2008

The GOP keeps saying every presidential electin year they'll take PA--and haven't since 1988. North Carolina, on the other hand, has a strong African-American base and young voter base that is keyed for Obama. With GOTV I think we can win it. I don't think we can take Arizona this year but with changing demos in four years, who knows?

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 03:44 PM

9. I still wouldn''t get hopes up, you think we can take Indiana too?

Sure we'll make it close but there's still a lot of the South in NC. Long term we'll own it again but this year is not a high win probability state.

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Response to WI_DEM (Original post)

Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:39 PM

8. Amazing to me that

only 58% of Hispanics support Obama there given the papers please law the Republicans have passed there.

That law puts all Hispanics, not just illegal ones, under a cloud of suspicion and treats them differently than the rest of the population. Can't imagine why any would be supporting the GOP.

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